Traffic congestion event prediction is an important yet challenging task in intelligent transportation systems. Many existing works about traffic prediction integrate various temporal encoders and graph convolution networks (GCNs), called spatio-temporal graph-based neural networks, which focus on predicting dense variables such as flow, speed and demand in time snapshots, but they can hardly forecast the traffic congestion events that are sparsely distributed on the continuous time axis. In recent years, neural point process (NPP) has emerged as an appropriate framework for event prediction in continuous time scenarios. However, most conventional works about NPP cannot model the complex spatio-temporal dependencies and congestion evolution patterns. To address these limitations, we propose a spatio-temporal graph neural point process framework, named STGNPP for traffic congestion event prediction. Specifically, we first design the spatio-temporal graph learning module to fully capture the long-range spatio-temporal dependencies from the historical traffic state data along with the road network. The extracted spatio-temporal hidden representation and congestion event information are then fed into a continuous gated recurrent unit to model the congestion evolution patterns. In particular, to fully exploit the periodic information, we also improve the intensity function calculation of the point process with a periodic gated mechanism. Finally, our model simultaneously predicts the occurrence time and duration of the next congestion. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance in comparison to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

In this paper, we aim at developing new methods to join machine learning techniques and macroscopic differential models for vehicular traffic estimation and forecast. It is well known that data-driven and model-driven approaches have (sometimes complementary) advantages and drawbacks. We consider here a dataset with flux and velocity data of vehicles moving on a highway, collected by fixed sensors and classified by lane and by class of vehicle. By means of a machine learning model based on an LSTM recursive neural network, we extrapolate two important pieces of information: 1) if congestion is appearing under the sensor, and 2) the total amount of vehicles which is going to pass under the sensor in the next future (30 min). These pieces of information are then used to improve the accuracy of an LWR-based first-order multi-class model describing the dynamics of traffic flow between sensors. The first piece of information is used to invert the (concave) fundamental diagram, thus recovering the density of vehicles from the flux data, and then inject directly the density datum in the model. This allows one to better approximate the dynamics between sensors, especially if an accident happens in a not monitored stretch of the road. The second piece of information is used instead as boundary conditions for the equations underlying the traffic model, to better reconstruct the total amount of vehicles on the road at any future time. Some examples motivated by real scenarios will be discussed. Real data are provided by the Italian motorway company Autovie Venete S.p.A.

We present a novel framework for modeling traffic congestion events over road networks based on new mutually exciting spatio-temporal point process models with attention mechanisms and neural network embeddings. Using multi-modal data by combining count data from traffic sensors with police reports that report traffic incidents, we aim to capture two types of triggering effect for congestion events. Current traffic congestion at one location may cause future congestion over the road network, and traffic incidents may cause spread traffic congestion. To capture the non-homogeneous temporal dependence of the event on the past, we introduce a novel attention-based mechanism based on neural networks embedding for the point process model. To incorporate the directional spatial dependence induced by the road network, we adapt the "tail-up" model from the context of spatial statistics to the traffic network setting. We demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art methods for both synthetic and real data.